August 31, 2012
Reaching a Future of Choice by Leveraging Global Trends and Futuring: Insights from Renowned Futurist Sheryl Connelly
James Giese
UWEBC Communications Director
Sheryl Connelly was the featured guest speaker at the Marketing
Executives Retreat on August 23, 2012 hosted by the UWEBC.
As a futurist, Sheryl Connelly, Ford Motor Company, ironically
admits she spends a lot of her time reminding people that no one can predict
the future. But, as manager of Global Trends and Futuring, she tracks
consumer trends and collaborates with people throughout Ford Motor Company
to see how trend information may impact future products.
She also admits that what she does is not market research but
very qualitative and, in many ways, very subjective.
She reviews social, technology, environment, economy and politics
developments to try to understand the global forces that shape consumer
attitudes and beliefs as consumers.
To those who might dismiss her work, she responds that, “If you don’t take
time to think about the future, you are almost guaranteed a future of
constraint rather than a future of choice.”
Connelly “predicts” the future using three approaches: wild cards,
alternative scenario planning, and reviewing global trends.
Wild cards are those low probability events that can have great impact
either positive or negative. As examples, Connelly cited the 2009 H1N1 virus
outbreak, the 2010 volcanic eruptions in Iceland, and the 2011 earthquake
and Tsunami in Japan.
The other approach is to use alternative scenarios, basically a form of
storytelling that use “what if” questions. These scenarios can use an
“outside-in” review of developments, with the world as the outer shell,
within that, the industry (in her case, the auto industry) and finally, the
individual company or organizations (such as Ford Motor Co.) as the
innermost shell.
“This is what I call the “scare the room” segment of my presentation,” says
Connelly, speaking of her third approach to future prediction by using
global trends. These global trends include more people (7 to an estimated 9
billion); falling fertility rates in some countries; aging populations (some
may even live to 150); and increasing urbanization (there may be 30 to 40
megacities, with populations of more than 10 million people, in the next few
decades).
In outlining her trends Connelly is careful to distinguish between trends
and fads. According to Connelly, a trend is a manifestation of a shift in
consumer values, attitudes, or behavior—some trends are regional in scope,
while others a have a global impact. Unlike a fad, a trend is a true change
in values and behaviors.
Given these three methods of predicting the future, there is a subjective
nature to identifying trends admits Connelly.
Connelly outlined the some of the trend clusters she follows and gave market
illustrations for each:
- Aging Populations. Key drivers of this trend are medical advances,
delayed marriage, postponed parenthood, and falling fertility. Connelly
cited Dove’s wrinkled or wonderful ad campaign, portable diabetes testing
handsets, and wearable power suits for the elderly.
- Changing Physiologies. The human profile is constantly changing as a
growing number of people are dealing short term and long term physical
changes that accompany aging and affluence. Some examples of this trend in
the marketplace include anti-obesity gum, healthier body images in
advertising, and an increase in elective surgeries.
- Safety and Security. Consumers are seeking reassurance though products
and services to obtain personal security and ease their sense of
vulnerability. This trend is illustrated in the market by gated communities
and consumer devices that prevent drink tampering and check for food
freshness.
- Ethical Consumption. Consumers are increasingly aware of what a product
“stands for.” Key drivers of this trend are activist citizens groups and
more prevalent information. Some market examples are bloodless diamonds, and
the Tom’s Shoes concept of “buy one and give one.”
- Careful Consumption. The careful consumer balances practicality with
passion. Purchases tend to include elements of self-discipline,
thoroughness, and deliberation. Some examples are the desire for more
streamlined transactions and technology convergence.
- Information Addiction. As knowledge and access to information is
perceived as translating into greater control, power, and success; consumer
demand for information is for many constant and for some insatiable.
Information is seen as a status symbol, but information overload, can be as
problematic as too little. It leads to choice fatigue and “analysis
paralysis.”
As Connelly concluded her presentation, she emphasized the tendency to only
pay attention to what we think is important. This tendency is reinforced by
internet technologies such as social media and personalized search engine
results. To reach a future of choice, companies should consider alternative
scenarios, review global trends, and be aware of the “wild card” events.